Market benchmarks Sensex and Nifty wilted under selling pressure on Friday after a five-day rally as investors pared exposure to banking, financial and consumer durable stocks amid mixed trends in global markets. Rising global crude prices, a depreciating rupee and persistent foreign fund outflows further weighed on sentiment, traders said.
State-owned fuel retailers are losing close to Rs 3 per litre on selling diesel while the profit on petrol has trimmed due to recent firming up in international oil prices, industry officials said detailing reasons for continuing to hold retail prices. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), who control roughly 90 per cent of India's fuel market, 'voluntarily' have not changed petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices for almost two years now, resulting in losses when input cost was higher and profits when raw material prices were lower.
The RBI opened a forex swap window in August to meet the entire daily dollar requirements of three oil marketing companies as the rupee depreciated to an all-time low of 68.85 against the US currency.
Domestic equity markets will be driven mainly by quarterly earnings, global trends, and the movement in crude oil prices in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Investors would also keep an eye on the Middle East amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and the trading activity of foreign investors. Markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Dussehra.
In the Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra tanked over 6 per cent after the company cut the prices of its SUV models to boost demand. Mahindra & Mahindra said its XUV700's fully-loaded AX7 range now starts at Rs 19.49 lakh, a price cut of over Rs 2 lakh. Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, State Bank of India, JSW Steel, Tata Motors and Kotak Mahindra Bank were other losers.
India's corporate sector is likely to report a slowdown in revenue growth and earnings for the July-September 2023 period (Q2FY24), according to earnings estimates by brokerages, after the country's top listed companies posted higher than expected profits for the first quarter. The combined net profit of Nifty50 companies, based on brokerage estimates, is expected to have grown by 19.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1.75 trillion in Q2FY24 - a sharp deceleration from 37.6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in the combined earnings of index companies in the April-June 2023 period. According to estimates, the combined earnings in the second quarter would be down 8.8 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis and the lowest in the past three quarters.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends and macroeconomic data announcements in a holiday-shortened week which may see volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, say analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Gurunanak Jayanti. Trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be tracked by investors.
From the 30 Sensex companies, Zomato, Tata Motors, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, Maruti Suzuki India, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement and Infosys were among the laggards. In contrast, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Consultancy Services, PowerGrid, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Sun Pharmaceuticals were the gainers.
Movement in the equity market this week will largely be dictated by quarterly earnings of blue-chip firms HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, along with the announcement of WPI inflation data and global trends, analysts said. Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement.
Rising energy demand could tilt India's energy basket towards fossil fuels from coal to oil, natural gas.
While most analysts are expecting poor results from oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter of 2024-25 (Q1FY25) and even in the first half (H1) of FY25, GAIL (India) could be an outlier. Upstream producers, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) could do well due to strong crude and gas prices, but refiners are likely to see weak margins and the impact of frozen prices during the election period will also be negative.
Public sector oil marketing company Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) will raise prices of petrol by 27 paise a litre, - for the first time since decontrolling petrol prices.
The market responded positively to the Q1 results of oil marketing companies (OMCs), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) despite numbers being weaker than consensus. BPCL's reported gross refining margin (GRM) was in line at $7.9 per barrel (bbl) in Q1FY25, which implies marketing margin stood at Rs 4.8 per litre. Standalone profit after tax or PAT at Rs 3,000 crore was down versus consensus due to under-recoveries in LPG business.
The government has received three preliminary bids for buying of controlling stake in India's second-largest fuel retailer Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said on Wednesday. Mining-to-oil conglomerate Vedanta had on November 18 confirmed putting in an expression of interest (EoI) for buying the government's 52.98 per cent stake in BPCL. The other two bidders are said to be global funds, one of them being Apollo Global Management.
Among the Sensex firms, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Nestle, Tata Motors, ITC, Bharti Airtel and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Larsen & Toubro, Wipro, JSW Steel, UltraTech Cement, and Asian Paints were among the laggards.
Notwithstanding the recent sharp decline in the stocks of public sector companies, analysts at Jefferies remain bullish on this segment. State Bank of India, Coal India, and NTPC are their top picks in this space, they said in a recent note. The public sector undertaking (PSU) or state-owned enterprise (SOE) index, with a 70-percentage-point outperformance versus the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 over the past 12 months, comes after a decade of underperformance before 2020.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. Bajaj Finance climbed nearly 2 per cent after the company reported an 18 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter.
Indian companies are generating more cash than ever. The net cash flow from listed firms' operations hit a new high of Rs 11.1 trillion in financial year 2023-24 (FY24), crossing the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data going back to 1990-91. The FY24 figure represents a 19.3 per cent jump over the previous year, even as quite a few companies are yet to release their numbers.
What is more surprising is that a surge in Russian oil supplies has come after the G7 imposed stringent sanctions on Moscow.
Quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will drive stock markets in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. It will be a trading holiday on January 22, with the Maharashtra government announcing a holiday in connection with the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. Equity markets would also remain closed on Friday for Republic Day.
'That way you're not hostage just to US sort of exports to India.'
Indian oil and gas exploration companies work in silos.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
The government expects indirect tax collection to be lower than the Budget Estimate (BE) of Rs 13.38 trillion this fiscal year, despite prospects of netting goods and services tax (GST) in large amounts, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj has said. "Indirect tax collection may see lower realisation than budgeted on account of cuts in excise and customs duties. "We could see a shortfall of about Rs 1.5 trillion on account of those," he told Business Standard.
'We are not incentivising the old tax scheme. These taxpayers will also shift to the new regime after comparison.'
From the Sensex basket, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards. Titan Company, Hindustan Unilever, HDFC Bank, Maruti, ITC, Power Grid and Reliance Industries were the gainers.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries, ITC, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and JSW Steel were the major laggards. Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Maruti, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
Stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) have more headroom left despite the sharp run in the last few weeks, suggests a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Stocks of these oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs), it believes, are seeing multiples re-rate as investors reassess long-term growth prospects. "IOCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, 19 per cent below +1 standard deviation (SD); BPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near historical averages; HPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near +1SD," Morgan Stanley said.
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
The unexpected missile attack on a second India-bound ship carrying Russian crude, just three weeks after the first, has complicated matters for domestic refiners. India now counts the Vladimir Putin-led nation as its biggest oil supplier, according to Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler, and these attacks come on top of US sanctions since December, where vessels that bring crude to India are facing heightened scrutiny. Panama-registered Pollux, which loaded crude at the Sheshkaris oil terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk on January 24, was scheduled to deliver the medium, sour Urals grade to Paradip port on February 28.
The private companies want a level playing field so that they can compete with the government companies in fuel retailing.
'The government's priority is not farmers.'
International oil prices have hit a six-month low, helping Indian fuel retailers breakeven on petrol but they continue to lose money on diesel - the most used fuel in the country, officials said. The world's best-known crude benchmark, Brent was trading at $94.91 per barrel on Thursday after concerns of a global recession led to it slipping to a six-month low of $91.51 on the previous day. The current rates are a relief to India, which is 85 per cent dependent on imports for meeting its oil needs.
Iran has offered to help India meet its energy needs by relaunching rupee-rial trade for export of oil and gas, said Iranian ambassador to India Ali Chegeni. Chegeni said if both the countries resume rupee-rial trade, bilateral trade can touch $30 billion. Iran used to be India's second largest oil supplier but New Delhi had to halt imports after the former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and re-imposed sanctions on its oil exports.
As a panel of senior ministers deliberates on the need to review curbs on exports of some rice varieties, data shows that since outbound shipments saw restrictions in July-August last year, the non-basmati segment has suffered more than basmati exports. Sources said the panel is expected to soon deliberate on a few suggestions to ease the export curbs on some rice varieties due to higher-than-required stocks in the central pool. The panel, some observers feel, may also postpone the decision to ease the export curbs till a firm picture emerges on the latest kharif paddy sowing.
Equity markets would take cues from domestic inflation data announcement, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Tuesday for 'Diwali Balipratipada'. "As we enter a truncated week with Muhurat trading on Sunday, global cues will play a pivotal role in shaping the market direction.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports jumped over 5 per cent. NTPC, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Zomato, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank and Maruti were among the other big gainers. From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and UltraTech Cement were the other laggards.
"The economies of scale for a refinery are different for India and Africa. India being a net exporter of products, refineries need to have capacities to the tune of 15 mtpa to push products to the domestic market and for export. In Africa even a small refinery makes sense," the analyst said.
Sources said a meeting of heads of the oil marketing companies -- Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum -- was called off.
